LABOR candidate Jodie Belyea has won the Dunkley by-election.
With nearly 75 per cent of the vote counted, Labor leads the Liberals on the two-party-preferred count by 2.7 per cent. There has been a 3.6 per cent swing towards the Liberals compared to the 2022 federal election result, which is not enough to win the seat.
Jodie Belyea is the founder of the Women’s Spirit Project, an organisation supporting women affected by poverty, violence, and other issues. She has also worked with the MEGT Foundation. Belyea was recruited into the Labor Party by former Dunkley MP Peta Murphy.
The by-election was triggered by Murphy’s death from metastatic breast cancer in December. Murphy won the seat for Labor in 2019 and retained it with a 6.3 per cent margin in 2022. Dunkley residents cast their votes on Saturday, 2 March. Polls closed at 6pm, and ABC election analyst Antony Green called the result for Labor at 8.46pm.
On Saturday night, Belyea addressed a rowdy crowd of Labor Party members at Frankston Bowling Club. She said “I am humble to have the opportunity to follow in Peta Murphy’s footsteps and to build on her remarkable legacy”. “I said all along that easing the cost of living is my number one priority. Labor’s tax cuts will make a difference, but the message tonight is that there is still much more to do,” she said. “Thank you for supporting me and giving me the opportunity to represent you in federal parliament. From the Frankston Hospital upgrade to the urgent care clinic and the Hall Road upgrade – I said I would be a strong, passionate, local voice for Dunkley and that is exactly what I will do. I am Frankston tough.”
The projected swing towards the Liberals is consistent with the average swing towards the opposition at a by-election. Liberal Dunkley candidate Nathan Conroy said the result would benefit the Liberals going forward – in his concession speech he told supporters “at the next election we are coming for [Prime Minister Anthony] Albanese and his government.”
Conroy is the incumbent Frankston mayor, and took leave from Frankston Council to contest the by-election. He is expected to return to council. Conroy faces a difficult political landscape to navigate in the wake of his defeat. The Times understands multiple Frankston councillors were surprised and unimpressed by his decision to take leave from council to run for federal politics. During his absence councillors passed a no-confidence motion against their deputy mayor Liam Hughes, as he was overseas and unable to fill in for the mayor during January. Hughes chose not to resign and returned to Australia to take over the mayoral duties in February.
The relationship between council and the state government will also be a point of interest going forward – Labor’s Frankston MP Paul Edbrooke actively campaigned against Conroy during the by-election.
Labor’s by-election campaign focused around its changes to stage three tax cuts, which will save most Dunkley residents hundreds of dollars. The Liberals campaigned on cost-of-living too, and also promised money towards infrastructure projects. Opposition leader Peter Dutton promised $900 million towards the extension of the Frankston line to Baxter.
The seat of Dunkley will be contested again at the next federal election, which is expected to take place next year.
First published in the Frankston Times – 5th March 2024