RISING sea levels will pose a huge risk to Frankston’s coastline this century, according to a state government-commissioned report released last week.

The “Port Phillip Bay Coastal Hazard Assessment” report was published last week. The lengthy technical report assessed potential damage to Port Phillip coastlines if sea levels rise by 1.4 metres.

Patterson Lakes is one of the areas most at risk on the eastern side of Port Phillip, according to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation report. “Coastal hazards in the Frankston City Council will occur along the bay coastline and inside Patterson Lakes,” the report read.

“The highly urbanised and low-lying areas of Greater Geelong, Werribee, City of Port Phillip and Mordialloc to Frankston were deemed most at risk from hazards posed by sea level rise. (…) For the Borough of Queenscliffe and City of Bayside the area of inundation approximately doubles between present conditions and 1.4 metres of sea level rise whereas for the Cities of Hobsons Bay, Greater Geelong, Frankston and Mornington Peninsula Shire the inundation area undergoes an approximate two to three-fold increase for a 1.4 metre sea level rise.”

The CSIRO report states that the Kingston Council area faces a “tenfold” inundation risk if the 1.4 metre sea level rise model is applied. It read that some parts of the Kingston Council area are not properly equipped for that scenario. “Much of this increase occurred in the Edithvale-Seaford Wetlands between Mordialloc Creek and Patterson River indicating that existing coastal protection structures would not be effective for 1.4 metre sea level rise,” it read.

In the Mornington Peninsula Shire municipality, the area around Martha Cove, the Balcombe Estuary Recreation Reserve, and the foreshore from Rosebud to Dromana were listed as inundation risks once sea levels rise.

A map of the potential impacts of a 1.4 metre sea level rise by 2100 shows the entirety of Frankston Beach at risk of erosion during an extreme weather event.

A PROJECTION of how rising sea levels may erode Frankston’s coastline by 2100. Picture: Supplied

After the report’s release Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a news conference that “the first thing that we have a role in is enacting on climate change.”

“My government is taking serious action on it. Of course planning is the responsibility of state governments, but we work cooperatively with governments of all persuasions to work through these issues,” he said. “We have a government that is committed to action on climate change and an opposition that, in spite of the evidence that we see with the science and warnings that we were told about, of more extreme and more regular and more intense extreme weather events, nothing seems to have woken up the Liberal and National parties in Australia to this.”

A statement from the state government read that it had spent $1.8 million “to support local governments and land managers to progress adaptation planning studies in the Port Phillip Bay area, with the release of the Coastal Hazard Assessment to support progression of these projects.” Environment minister Steve Dimopoulos said, “the Port Phillip Bay Coastal Hazard Assessment will be used to help local authorities and Victorians make better informed decision around our changing coastal environment.”

“Victoria’s precious coastline is already being impacted by climate change. Our focus is on managing the risks, adapting to the changes, and supporting communities and industries to be resilient,” he said.

To read the full report visit marineandcoasts.vic.gov.au/coastal-programs/port-phillip-bay-coastal-hazard-assessment

First published in the Frankston Times – 16 January 2024

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